Satellite Maps Wind Analysis Share

Near real time atmospheric information in the western Pacific basin, in and around the Philippine archipelago.  There is 1 active cyclone and/or probable cyclone present.

98W.INVEST (INVEST)


Basin IR Animation
24-hour Formation Probability

Tropical Cyclone Advisory

Please consult storm/typhoon warning when available.

Active advisory

Advisory Text

ABPW10 PGTW 191630MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191630Z-200600ZAPR2014//RMKS/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 143.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FLARING AHEAD OF A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD NEAR THE ISLAND OF YAP. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THIS LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT SWATHS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED, WITH 5-15 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSING THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC, AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION FROM YAP INDICATES VARIABLE WINDS AT 4 KNOTS SUSTAINED. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS HIGH AS 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS. DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE INCREASINGLY SHIFTED TOWARD DEVELOPING THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE LLCC TO BECOME COUPLED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND TC GENESIS INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

Please consult your national meteorological agency or the appropriate World Meteorological Organization Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for tropical cyclone products pertinent to your country, region and/or local area.

JTWC document date: Saturday April 19, 2014 16:37:01 UTC





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